2026 Hurricane Primer: How Reliable Are Seasonal Forecasts?

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Hurricane Primer: How Reliable Are Seasonal Forecasts?

, But Losses Are Event-Driven: Historical data ◦Forecasts

suggests seasonal forecasts are more useful than we had previously thought to

be and provide a reasonable starting point for assessing expected storm activity.

However, they are less effective at predicting insured catastrophe losses, which are

driven by landfall location, storm intensity, insured values, and net retention after

reinsurance.

Is Concentrated Among Florida Specialists: Florida and Gulf Coast ◦Exposure

property carriers remain most exposed, given geographic concentration and single-

event earnings sensitivity, as opposed to more geographically diversified and/or

multi-segmented carriers.

• Key Takeaways:

U.S. has experienced major hurricane landfalls at nearly double the long- ◦The

term historical average over the past decade. CSU projected a 55% average

probability of at least one major U.S. landfall per year over the last ten years

compared to the historical U.S. average of 43%; the actual result was 0.9 landfalls

per year against a historical average of 0.5.

predictions are directionally useful but are imprecise predictors of ◦Seasonal

insured catastrophe losses. Forecasts measure basin-wide activity, not landfall

location – the primary driver of insured losses. Several above-average forecast

years produced below-average losses because storms stayed offshore.

damages tend to align with the overall sentiment heading into a season, ◦Total

but one major landfall can define losses for the year, regardless of the

forecasted hurricane quantity. Every above-average forecast year since 2016

(except 2025) produced total U.S. damage losses exceeding $10 billion, but the

variability within that range is wide.