Winning the next generation in Asia

Research evidence excerpt

Winning the next generation in Asia

Macquarie Equity Research Ryohin Keikaku

Japanese retailers with leading market share, vertical integration, and strong growth exposure

to Asia generally trade at a 30–40% premium to the TOPIX Retail P/E (two-year forward:

22–23x). As Ryohin meets these criteria, we base our TP on a 30x P/E multiple. While our

previous framework was anchored on a two-year forward average, we now roll forward

to FY8/28E EPS, applying the same 30x multiple to derive our ¥4,50 TP. This reflects our

increased confidence in more sustained and visible growth. In particular, we see stronger

growth momentum driven by the company’s success in capturing younger consumers in Asia,

which supports both top-line expansion and operating leverage, leading to a disproportionate

uplift in earnings.

Earnings change

Following our participation in an IR event in China (see reports below), we raise our three-

year operating profit CAGR to 15.4%, from 11.5%, driven by stronger-than-expected sales

growth in East Asia, including mainland China. We also revise FY8/26/27/28E same-store

sales growth assumptions for the region to 14.5%, 7%, and 5% (from 3%, 2%, and 1%).

Near-term focus: In 3Q–4Q, we watch domestic gross margins (limited benefit from in-

house price controls vs. cost pressure from spot sourcing), China’s expense ratio, and labour

productivity trends.

Ryohin Keikaku: Takeaways from Shanghai store tour, 25 May 2026

Ryohin Keikaku: Takeaways from East Asia Business Briefing

Figure 3 - Ryohin Keikaku: Earnings revisions

J-GAAP Revenue OP RP NP* EPS DPS

(¥mn) (¥mn) yoy (¥mn) yoy (¥mn) yoy (¥) (¥)

F8/24 661,677 13.8% 56,136 69.4% 55,777 54.3% 41,566 88.5% 78.6 40.00

F8/25 784,629 18.6% 73,840 31.5% 72,301 29.6% 50,846 22.3% 95.9 50.00