MCO: Expect a 2Q Beat on Better-than-Expected Issuance

Research evidence excerpt

MCO: Expect a 2Q Beat on Better-than-Expected Issuance

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 16, 2026

Business & Information Services

Moody's Corporation

Expect a 2Q Beat on Better-than-Expected Issuance Overweight

Price Target: $590.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

We see risk skewed to the upside ahead of MCO's 2Q earnings given our view that it could EPS 2026 16.87 16.85 0.1%

beat on MIS revenue. We see potential for a modest EPS guidance raise to reflect the EPS 2027 19.06 19.02 0.2%

beat. We are modeling 2Q EPS of $4.27, ahead of Street $4.18. Rev. (MM) 2026 8.23B 8.22B 0.1%

Rev. (MM) 2027 8.91B 8.89B 0.1%

We're modeling MIS revenue growth of +14.1% in 2Q, above Street +11.8%, driven

by strong issuance momentum as spreads have remained tight. We expect MIS revenue Ticker MCO

growth to decelerate to MSD in 2H on tougher compares. We remain bullish on issuance Upside/(Downside) to Target 29.9%

in the near term, supported by funding needs tied to the energy transition and AI-related

Price (06/15/2026) $454.06infrastructure. We are modeling 2Q MIS operating margins +200bp YoY, reflecting strong

operating leverage from better-than-expected revenue growth. 52 Week Range $402.28 - 546.88

Market Cap (MM) $80,505

We expect a modest acceleration in MA ARR in 2Q to 8.3%, driven by continued Average Daily Value (MM) $489

strong sales execution and new product momentum. Note that ARR growth should also Dividend Yield 0.7%

benefit from lapping ESG and government-related headwinds, the termination of a KYC

agreement, and an insurance merger. We are modeling MA operating margin expansion $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

of +140bp YoY in 2Q to 33.5%, a modest QoQ step-up from 1Q levels, before a more EPS