Equity Market Review: Hawkish central banks, dovish oil prices

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Market Review: Hawkish central banks, dovish oil prices

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

19 June 2026

Equity Market Review

Hawkish central banks, dovish oil

prices

The global easing cycle is ending, as more central banks turn

European Equity Strategy

hawkish. A more decisive pivot towards fighting inflation Emmanuel Cau, CFA

would weaken the liquidity support to the bull market. But +44 (0)20 3134 0475 emmanuel.cau@barclays.com

falling oil is a promising development to prevent this scenario Barclays, UK

to materialise, and could help the rally to broaden out. Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 5983

magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Emmanuel MakongaWeekly market commentary

+44 (0)20 7773 2593

Hawkish central banks... A dense stretch of major central  Equity Market Review emmanuel.makonga@barclays.com

bank meetings in the past week has now concluded. It Barclays, UK Our weekly pack contains key

began with ECB's first rate hike since 2023, followed by the charts on performance valuation

BoJ, which raised rates to their highest level since 1995, and technicals Arihanth Bohra Jain

+91 (0)22 6175 1406

both emphasising renewed inflation pressures. The BoE arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.com

held policy steady, but the vote split retained a hawkish Barclays, UK

bias despite softer recent data on inflation and the labour market. Most importantly, the first

FOMC meeting under Chair Warsh struck a distinctly hawkish tone, helping to alleviate, at least

partially, earlier concerns around central bank independence. In response, markets have

repriced rate expectations higher, with a hike now anticipated as early as Sep/Oct this year.

Markets saw some wobbles post the meeting, with history showing that equities tended to