Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - early-mid June capacity growth st..."

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - early-mid June capacity growth st..."

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Airlines & Aerospace Equities

GlobalPlane spotting - early-mid June capacity growth

stable m/m Airlines

Jarrod Castle, CFA

Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor +44-20-7568 8883

We use data from the UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor (> Access dataset). Amal Patel

This monthly monitor aims to aggregate global commercial air traffic data at the flight Analyst

level, with each flight then mapped to an airline operator, country/region of take-off and amal.patel@ubs.com

operation, engine type, aircraft manufacturer and body type. For each flight, a measure +44-20-7568 3973

of passenger-carrying capacity is calculated, based on available seat kilometres (ASK). Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

We think the data allows us to estimate the extent of the global airline traffic recovery Analyst

before traffic is announced or estimated, which is useful for predicting revenues. The ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

time series began in January 2018 and extends to the 14th June 2026. +44-20-7568 3240

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

Avg capacity growth in June YTD sequentially stable; LSD capacity declines Analyst

continue to characterise most regions with Italy/Spain outperforming cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

Analysing capacity data for the first two weeks of June, we note the following: +44-20-7568 4375

Ian Douglas-Pennant

European avg weekly capacity growth is down -3% y/y (vs. -2% y/y in May) with

significant divergence remaining in place across regions. On one side of the ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com

spectrum, Italy/Spain continue to dominate growth leadership with 4-5% y/y +44-20-7568 0936

growth similar vs.