Subaru "Lowering rating to Sell: US market is challenging" (Sell) Takahashi

Research evidence excerpt

Subaru "Lowering rating to Sell: US market is challenging" (Sell) Takahashi

ink intensified US competition

From To % ch Cons.

and sluggish sales of new models could have a significant impact until FY3/28, and we 03/27E 271.8 245.0 -10 248.8

are accordingly revising down our FY3/27 EPS estimate. FY3/29 EPS is expected to be 03/28E 300.5 316.5 5 307.3

significantly impacted by cost reductions, and has been raised up by 23%. The 03/29E 305.5 374.9 23 291.4

difference in margin of change between OP and EPS reflects the incorporation of the

¥150bn share buyback announced at the Q4 FY3/26 briefing (previous forecast ¥50bn). Kohei Takahashi

Analyst

kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

New Outback: Is a shift to a premium segment possible?

+81-3-5208 6172

The new Outback, which underwent a full model change (FMC) at the beginning of

Mao Eguchi2026 and became a D-segment SUV, recorded average sales of 11,000 units in April-

Associate Analyst

May (almost flat yoy), while incentives increased during the same period (Figure 2). The mao.eguchi@ubs.com

new model involves a production shift from the US to Japan, with US tariffs also serving +81-3-5208 6242

as a factor behind deteriorating profit margins (Figure 3). Additionally, in the BEV

segment, which is expected to remain in the red for the time being, Subaru plans to

expand from one model in FY3/26 to four models during FY3/27, with three models

already launched and some of the demand for the new Outback potentially shifting to

BEVs (Figure 4). While the strategy to shift toward larger and higher-tier segments in the

polarised US demand environment is understandable, achieving this through upsizing

and higher pricing of existing models is not likely to be easy.

Valuation: Price target of ¥2,200 (previously ¥2,500)