Jefferies Financial Group "F2Q26 Preview: Good News Largely Priced;..."

Research evidence excerpt

Jefferies Financial Group "F2Q26 Preview: Good News Largely Priced;..."

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Jefferies Financial Group Equities

United StatesF2Q26 Preview: Good News Largely Priced;

Downgrade to Neutral Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral *

Prior : Buy

12m price target US$67.00We see little PT upside and downgrade JEF to Neutral

Prior : US$59.00

We downgrade Jefferies (JEF) to Neutral from Buy. With shares up +19% M/M and

+50% Q/Q (vs peers +2% / +11%) we believe a 13x blended ’27E P/E valuation Price (17 Jun 2026) US$63.49

appropriately reflects elevated advisory and ECM expectations. While our 2Q EPS RIC: JEF.N BBG: JEF US

estimate rose materially (+95%, led by Adv and ECM), our ’27E EPS rose only modestly,

as a strong recovery is embedded in our base case estimates. In addition, a key near-term Trading data and key metrics

catalyst—open-market share purchases from SMBC—appears largely done (by our 52-wk range US$70.36-36.02

estimates), while the longer-term benefits from the JV will take time. Alongside our Market cap. US$13.1b

preview, we are raising our PT to $67 (13x ’27E EPS) from $59 (12x ’27E EPS); however, Shares o/s 206m (COM)

upside limited at current levels with much already priced into EPS. Free float 80%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 597

Advisory: Increasing share, but high expectations baked in Avg. daily value (m) US$28.3

Based on our estimates, we believe the market is pricing in a fee pool reaching ~120% Common s/h equity (11/26E) US$11.0b

of the record ’21 level by ’27E. While JEF has improved its global advisory league table P/BV (11/26E) 1.1x

position from #11 in ’18 to #6 in ’25, we see limited upside to consensus’ advisory Tier 1 ratio -

estimates, especially given high growth baked in and the stubbornly gradual pace of