N.A. Chems & Pkg "The Daily InSpector" Spector

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg "The Daily InSpector" Spector

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

N.A. Chems & Pkg Equities

AmericasThe Daily InSpector

Chemicals, Commodity

Joshua Spector, CFA

BHP Jansen Phase 2 review completed; Capex +$2B, capacity/FY31 startup Analyst

unchanged; Already incorporated in our more negative potash outlook - joshua.spector@ubs.com

extends expected oversupply to early 2030's +1-212-713 6188

BHP have announced the completion of their review of Phase 2 of the Jansen Lucas Beaumont

project. They have lifted the expected capital cost by $2B to $6.9B ($4.9B prior), Analyst

but have kept the project capacity (4.36mmts) and expected startup FY31 lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

unchanged. +1-212-713 4809

Christopher Perrella

Our view already incorporated expectations that Phase 2 would get built and we

Analyst

have that included for a 2031 startup in our S/D, but we may see the timing get christopher.perrella@ubs.com

somewhat delayed and come in later as the build progresses. That could still well +1-212-713 1443

be the case with completion 5 years out and typical project delays.

Anojja Shah

There had been discussions whether the new CEO at BHP would provide an Analyst

opportunity for them to cancel/defer Phase 2 and ways to potentially exit the anojja.shah@ubs.com

+1-312-525 4310 potash projects overall. In our view, another potential avenue for an exit would be

a sale of potash once they have the project/projects up and running. James Cannon

Associate Analyst

Our base view on potash is that the market will be oversupplied (link) and pressure james-p.cannon@ubs.com

pricing later in the decade. Over 2026-2029 we have ~14mmts of scheduled +1-212-713 4057

supply vs. ~6mmts of demand growth at trend (~2%/yr which is above historical Gaurav Sharma

levels of 1.5%-1.75%/yr).