Iran disruption tracker #74: Technical levels breached, with 4 days until the SoH reopens

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #74: Technical levels breached, with 4 days until the SoH reopens

June 16, 2026

Summary: Day 105

What changed today vs yesterday

●The MoU was digitally signed on Sunday by POTUS, VP Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. The

formal signing will still take place on Friday Jun19. POTUS has indicated that the terms of the MOU will be

released after formal signing on Friday. However, a US official has suggested that they could be made public in

the next 24 to 48 hrs

●Potential tolls remain a point of disagreement ahead of signing peace deal according to VP Vance. While there

are no fees during the 60-day ceasefire, Iran's state media has suggested Iran plans to start charging for services

thereafter. The US Blockade will remain until signing. However, the US does expect to keep military forces in the

region during talks.

●A US official has indicated that Israel can respond to Hezbollah attacks, if Iran cannot control the group. It is not

required to withdraw from Lebanon. Separately, Israel has insisted that it will not refrain from hitting Hezbollah.

Defense Minister Israel Katz has indicated that military forces will remain indefinitely in Lebanon and the Gaza

Strip as buffer zones.

●The Joint Maritime Information Center continues to caution Strait vessels with a threat level at "severe" despite

US assurances that the waterway is fully open. US officials suggest the Strait may soon see 40-50 ships per day.

●Potential de-mining of Strait. The UK & France are heading a 15 member coalition ready to defend the Strait,

including de-mining. This requires a final agreement between the US and Iran that restores full navigation rights

and would also create an environment suitable to deploy military assets. Per commentary from German officials,