Salesforce Inc: Low expectations with spreads at BBB levels; Initiate at Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

Salesforce Inc: Low expectations with spreads at BBB levels; Initiate at Overweight

• AI monetization is promising but unproven at scale and margin

uncertainty. Salesforce is investing heavily in AI capabilities with Agentforce

and Data 360, but markets and monetization strategies remain relatively new

and uncertain. Revenues are not yet substantial enough to remove uncertainty

around adoption pace and usage levels. Its data, integration, and workflow moat

helps address this risk, but the revenue outlook remains unclear, with CRM

emphasizing seat-based revenue will continue to be a key component of

growth. Margins could also be at risk, depending on CRM’s ability to mark-up

compute on agentic AI, consistent with its 80% gross margins on SaaS

revenues; for now, CRM expects agentic AI revenue to be margin neutral.

• AI disruption risk and high competitive intensity. Salesforce’s markets are

intensely competitive, rapidly evolving, fragmented, and subject to low barriers

to entry. Competitors range from incumbent enterprise software vendors and

cloud providers to AI labs, other AI-native startups, bundled software offerings,

and specialized vertical vendors. There is uncertainty on pricing and/or margins

for usage/consumption-based products, especially for AI agents, given the

evolving landscape and models being pursued by Salesforce and competitors. In

addition, AI disruption from purported replacement of SaaS offerings by in-

house development by existing customers and/or the rapid integration of AI

across software products could jeopardize portions of Salesforce’s value chain

by reducing differentiation or shifting customer spending toward alternative

platforms.

• Acquisitive history. Salesforce has been acquisitive historically with a mix of