US Watch: June FOMC: A single mandate

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US Watch: June FOMC: A single mandate

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US Watch

June FOMC: A single mandate

Rising risk of rising rates 17 June 2026

The June FOMC meeting was clearly hawkish. Nine policymakers projected hikes this Macro

year. The inflation forecasts were marked up significantly for this year and showed United States

persistence in the out years, despite upward revisions to the policy rate projections.

Warsh leaned hawkish too. Aditya Bhave

US Economist

He repeatedly emphasized the importance of restoring price stability and suggested BofAS

policy isn’t particularly restrictive. However, his views are hard to pin down because he +1aditya.bhave@bofa.com646 855 9929

refrained from answering any questions on the outlook, saying he doesn’t favor forward Mark Cabana, CFA

guidance. After today’s meeting, we see a much higher risk that the Fed will hike this Rates Strategist

BofAS

year. +1 646 743 7013

mark.cabana@bofa.com

There’s a task force for everything Alex Cohen, CFA

Warsh stated that he has established five task forces to look into Fed communications, FX Strategist BofAS

the balance sheet, data quality, productivity and the Fed’s inflation frameworks. +1 646 743 7015

Although he said he didn’t want to pre-judge the task forces’ findings, he heavily hinted alex.cohen2@bofa.com

that the result on communications would be substantial changes to the full suite of US Economics BofAS

communications. On the data quality / inflation frameworks task forces, Warsh Global Economics Rates & FX

emphasized that the Fed should focus on real-time rather than backward-looking data. BofAS

Rates: task force hawkish See Team Page for List of Analysts

US rates curve bear flattened after a hawkish meeting, with UST 2Y rising 13bps & 10Y