Best Smidcap Ideas: Auvelity Launch Expands, Under-followed Pipeline Is Upside

Research evidence excerpt

Best Smidcap Ideas: Auvelity Launch Expands, Under-followed Pipeline Is Upside

TD Cowen Axsome Therapeutics

Global Research June 17, 2026

We believe this number is well above Street expectations (and even our own $1.75B peak

estimate). In our recent catch-up with management, the team noted that Auvelity was formally

launched in the indication recently, with titration packs and samples being available. While

execution on physician touchpoints, reimbursement, and overall compliance will be key, we

believe expectations for Auvelity in ADA are likely too conservative. Our KOLs have repeatedly

indicated that the therapy should become the front line option for managing patients, especially

as the label lacks the mortality black box seen with Rexulti.

On MDD, we believe there is similar skepticism around achieving a $4B peak revenue

opportunity in this indication. Management has repeatedly indicated that it remains minimally

penetrated in the market, though encouraging trends on NBRx point to continued share growth,

and payer coverage is high at 86% of covered lives, which should support access this year.

Our KOLs note that it was always a matter of "when" not "if" reimbursement for Auvelity would

ease, and it appears we may be approaching a transition point based on our discussions. AXSM

also recently announced a sales force expansion which should benefit both the MDD and the

ADA markets. The team notes that this team has only been fully deployed for a few weeks, and

encouraging signs are already being seen, indicating that NBRx are trending above 3,200 per

week vs. approximately 2,700 per week in the beginning of May. The team notes it is seeing

~14% growth for Auvelity vs. only 4% growth for competitors over the same time period.