QMS Investor Update & Early SMI May-26

Research evidence excerpt

QMS Investor Update & Early SMI May-26

two largest exposures (60% and PREV

31% of rev respectively), were the top performers in Outdoor, growing 13.6% Y/Y and 6.2% Y/

Y, respectively. We note that SMI typically understates the true Outdoor market performance

(as measured by OMA), which was 5ppts better than SMI data for CY25 (11% vs 6% Y/Y). Figure 2 - QMS EBITDA Forecasts

250This provides us with confidence that QMS can grow revenue by DD in FY27, as it is growing 300250 227 273

ahead of the market, given its skew towards digital (96%) and metro (>90%), and cross-selling 200 203

134opportunities with NEC. 150 116 151

Bid for NRL rights. Press reports suggest that Foxtel has proposed a $4bn bid for the entire 50 43 16

NRL broadcasting rights (FTA + Pay TV) over the seven-year term (~$570m/year), with plans to 0 FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E FY30E

EBITDA (Post-AASB 16) EBITDA (Pre-AASB 16)sublicense them to SXL and Paramount. NEC's current deal for FTA (~$115m/year) concludes .

at the end of the 2027 season. While we think NEC would benefit from having the NRL across Source: Company data, Jefferies

the network (including on Stan), we expect NEC to remain rational and not bid for rights on

Figure 3 - Metro TV Ad Spend YoY Growth (%)

unattractive terms, and NEC could instead focus on more profitable content, such as MAFS 25.0%

20.0%

15.0%and Love Island. 10.0%

5.0%

Warner Bros and Paramount Merger. Over the weekend, the US DOJ approved the merger -10.0%-15.0%-5.0%

between PSKY and WBD. NEC has some content deals with WBD, but not an extensive amount. -20.0%-25.0%

We expect limited impact on NEC/Stan, given PSKY has publicly said it will continue to licensing Metropolitan TV

content to third parties. .Source: Guideline SMI, Jefferies

Note May-26 data is preliminary