April Australian Petroleum Stats

Research evidence excerpt

April Australian Petroleum Stats

Australia | Refining & Marketing EquityJuneResearch15, 2026

Figure 2 - ALD & VEA PE ratioApril Australian Petroleum Stats

20x

VEA ALD

Weak April fuel volumes imply demand pull-forward in March as motorists & 18x16x

14x

12xcommercial customers stockpiled fuel & volume response to higher prices.

10x

As stockpiles are worked through, we expect demand to normalise in line 8x6x

with pre-war trends. Jet volume decline driven by weakness in International. May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

.Gasoline decline more acute than diesel. We prefer ALD given solid Retail Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

execution & disclosure suggesting U-GO is delivering ahead of already-

attractive business case. Figurefuel price3 - Premium and E10 penetration vs

40% 250

Total fuel volumes declined -2.7% YoY - Total fuel volumes declined -2.7% YoY in April, 35% 200

deteriorating from March (+4.6%), with ex-jet volumes declining -2.3% in April. This suggests 30% 150

some pull-forward of demand from April into March following US-Iran war, given fuel availability 25% 100

concerns and may indicate volume response to higher prices. Refer to Figure 1. 20%

15% 50

Diesel volumes declined -0.7% YoY - Diesel volumes declined -0.7% YoY in April, deteriorating 10% 0

from March (+9.5%). Both retail and commercial volumes declined -0.7%. Refer to Figure 8. Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25 Apr-26

Petrol price (cpl - RHS) E10 penetration

Jet volumes declined -5.3% YoY - Jet volumes declined -5.3% YoY in April (-8.9% in March). Premium penetration

Domestic volumes grew +3.6% YoY (-2.1% in March) while International volumes remained .Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum