Upgrade to BUY: Changing It Up on International Frequency

Research evidence excerpt

Upgrade to BUY: Changing It Up on International Frequency

29E 2030E

$41 $72 $137 $160 $181 $204 $231commercial signals intelligence to support domain awareness, electronic warfare, and operational BusinessDomesticInternationalUnits 27 46 77 108 147 195 253

decision advantage. International remains a key growth driver in our model, with revenue expected Total% of RevenueRevenues $68 $118 $213 $268 $328 $399 $484

Domestic 61% 64% 60% 55% 51% 48%

to expand at a 47% CAGR and reach 52% of total sales in 2030. InternationalTotal Revenue 100% 100%39% 100%36% 100%40% 100%45% 100%49% 100%52%

Revenue Growth

Domestic 76% 91% 17% 13% 13% 13%

RF Demand Still Expanding; HAWK a Commercial-Scale Pureplay. HAWK provides space-based . InternationalTotal Revenues 72%74% 67%81% 41%26% 36%22% 32%22% 30%21%

Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

Radio Frequency intelligence through a proprietary constellation of 30+ satellites and AI-enabled

processing, serving U.S. and international defense/intelligence customers. We continue to forecast

strong growth supported by a $305MM backlog, expanding mission sets, and international demand,

with revenue increasing at a 23% organic CAGR and reaching $328MM in 2028E. The broader TAM

remains sizable, with government spectrum exploitation expected to grow to $34.2BB by 2030.

Margin Expansion and Net Cash Optionality Support Upside. HAWK’s asset-light model and

recurring software/data revenue mix drive operating leverage. EBITDA margins are expected

to expand to ~27% in 2028 from 17% in 2026, supported by higher gross margins, recurring

revenue scale, and SG&A/R&D leverage. The balance sheet also remains a differentiator, with over

$400MM of net cash post-IPO, providing flexibility for M&A, technology acceleration, or additional