Americas Equity Strategy World Cup Winners: The stocks, not the teams

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Equity Strategy World Cup Winners: The stocks, not the teams

Equity Strategy & Equities ● North America

17 June 2026

The growth of betting markets is affecting the Discretionary spend of this year's World

Cup. Through 2025, Brazil had already grown to be the fifth largest betting market in the world

and large players like MGM have mentioned the World Cup as an opportunity to continue

to grow their sportsbooks. Incremental spend on gambling could capture a significant portion

of spend that would typically go towards more traditional Consumer Discretionary names.

Brazil is now the 5th largest betting market in the world

Germany 1.90

South Africa 2.52

France 2.89

Canada** 3.00

Australia 3.66

Brazil 4.14

Russia 4.51

Italy 4.62

UK 9.90

USA* 17.31

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Estimated revenue of the sector in 2025, in USDbn

Source: Regulus Partners, HSBC

* in the United States where the activity is legal (includes horse racing and daily fantasy sports)

** includes the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG) monopoly and horse racing

This time around, we could see less discretionary World Cup impact, with more of the

incremental spend likely to flow into at-home consumption occasions. In that context, beverages

look well positioned to capture “watch-party” demand, especially as many of these companies

highlight World Cup themed promotions competing for the attention of football fans. Historically,

several large beverage players have explicitly framed the World Cup as demand catalysts and a

major branding opportunity. Ambev has highlighted tournament-related volume tailwinds in

Brazil, while Coca-Cola stands out for the scale and consistency of its football-linked marketing

campaigns. Bottlers Arca Continental and Coca-Cola FEMSA have also pointed to strong