US/Iran Update: Term Sheet TBA

Research evidence excerpt

US/Iran Update: Term Sheet TBA

aivers victoria.silva@rbccm.com

required to access frozen funds. There appears to be ambiguity over cash settlement terms,

with Tehran insisting that frozen funds will be released ahead of Friday while the White House

previously maintained that there will be a performance-based distribution of funds (including

the $300bln that may be allocated for reconstruction). It is noteworthy that last week, USSTRATEGY Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Iranian frozen funds would be used to repair Gulf

infrastructure that was damaged by Iranian drone and missile strikes.

• The lifting of US sanctions is a far more onerous process given the role of the US Congress in

initiating many of the most punitive measures. A spider web of legislation passed over the

past three decades gives Congress extensive sanctions oversight and nuclear deal approval

powers. For example, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 grants Congress

approval powers on any deal reached by the President relating to Iran's nuclear program,

requiring a deal to be submitted for review within five days of being reached, as well as

mandates further implementation oversight. Congressional critics of Iran are already calling

for hearings on any deal. This morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called out Vice President

Vance as the architect of the deal and stressed the importance of the negotiating team being

part of the process in presenting the terms of the deal to Congress.

Figure 1 - Middle East Gulf Oil on Water by Origin CountryCOMMODITY

mb

Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran

UAE Kuwait Qatar

100 Neutral Zone Unknown Bahrain

80GLOBAL

40 All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

20 Pricedclose, ETas (unlessof priorotherwisetrading day’sstated).market