Commodity Matters: Gold on Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Matters: Gold on Hold

Idea

June 19, 2026 09:43 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCommodity Matters | Europe Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Gold on Hold Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.comBen Kelson +44 20 7677-6937

Research Associate

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

De-escalation in the Middle East supports gold, but a more Martijn Rats, CFA

hawkish Fed brings challenges, particularly for ETF buying. We EquityMartijn.Rats@morganstanley.comAnalyst and Commodities Strategist +44 20 7425-6618

still see risks skewed to the upside but our $5,200/oz forecast

looks more challenging to achieve without ETF re-engagement. Exhibit 1 : Gold has reconnected with real

yields

Real Gold ($/oz) Real Gold Price ($/oz) vs US 10y TIPS (%)Key Takeaways

Middle East progress is a tailwind for gold if lower oil prices ease inflation and 5400 y = -2030.7xR² = 0.7611+ 8698.4 SinceMiddle East

4900 Conflict

external balance pressures. 4400 2025+

Official sector demand remains the strongest structural support. WGC’s survey 3400

shows 45% of respondents see their gold reserves rising over the next 12 months. 2900

2400 2022 2023-2024

The Fed is the main near-term constraint. A hawkish hold raises the opportunity 1900 2018-2021

cost of holding gold and is likely to matter most through ETF flows. -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.5010y TIPS 1.00% 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

We retain an upside bias, but $5,200/oz in 2H26 now looks more dependent on Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research

renewed ETF buying and evidence that lower oil is feeding into the rate outlook.

Exhibit 8 : On average, gold has rallied 0.84%

Middle East conflict de-escalation is positive for gold: Gold has not played its in the 1 month after a 25bp Fed hike versus