A.M. Notes

Research evidence excerpt

A.M. Notes

the gain in industrial activity this year. The

capacity utilization rate is forecast to increase modestly to 76.3% (vs. 76.1%).

Before the above release (@ 08:30), we get the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing

Survey. The headline general business conditions index is expected to ebb to 13.5 in

June (consensus call) after hitting a 49-month high of 19.6 in May. Then (@ 10:00), the

NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to remain at 37 in June (also consensus call),

the 13th consecutive month under the 40 mark which is the longest such run since 2012

(in the aftermath of the Great Recession).

Later this week, the marquee event is the FOMC’s policy announcement (due

Wednesday) with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections/dot plot and Chair Warsh’s

inaugural post-meeting presser. We look for no change in policy rates but the easing

bias being dropped and the median projection for fed funds pushing back the quarter

point rate cut into 2027 from this year. For more details on the event along with this

week’s major data releases mentioned below, see our latest Focus publication. On the

Canadian side, we get existing home sales for May (due Tuesday) and retail sales for

April (Friday). On the U.S. side, we have the May reports on housing starts and building

permits (Tuesday) along with retail sales (Wednesday).

Clippings:

KevinWarshWantstheFedtoStopExplainingEverything…Fordecades,thecentral

bankbelievedtalkingopenlymadeitspolicyworkbetter.Itsnewchairmanbelieves

theopposite—andhisfirstmeetingWednesdayiswherehestartstoproveit. Wall

Street Journal

JolytomeetChineseEVmakersinShanghaiinbidtoattractautosectorinvestment…

IndustryMinisterwillalsoseektoexpandCanadianexportopportunitiesduringChina

trip.Globe and Mail

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