Qantas Airways Sun rises in Toulouse

Research evidence excerpt

Qantas Airways Sun rises in Toulouse

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

19 June 2026

Qantas Airways Overweight

QAN.AX, QAN AU

Sun rises in Toulouse Price (19 Jun 26):A$10.06

▲Price Target (Jun-27):A$11.50

Prior (May-27):A$10.30

While domestic remains the key profitability driver, QAN’s Sunrise unveiling

reinforced the conservatism of the $400m EBIT target. This included: 1) 30% Australia

RASK assumptions (~10% mix /~20% ticket), achievable and backed by PER- Australia Industrials

LHR data (we initially estimated ~17% mix premium); 2) load factor assumptions AC Lee Power

(~85% budgeted vs >90% achieved for PER-LHR); 3) new operational (61-2) 9003-8725

opportunities (incl. constellation flight planning) to reduce costs. It is unsurprising lee.power@jpmorgan.com

management remains conservative on this target, despite what we view as an Nick Torelli

improving longer-term backdrop, noting the risk of Middle East carrier (61-4) 6817-5219

discounting exists across both the existing network and the Sunrise (end-to-end) nick.torelli@jpmorgan.com

routes. While Sunrise will initially account for only a small share of international Dylan Adrian

capacity, we see the optionality it provides for accelerated retirements on less fuel (61-2) 9003-7397

efficient aircraft should market conditions deteriorate. We remain constructive on dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com

medium-term earnings, noting: 1) a concentrated domestic market, impacted J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

logistics and constrained supply supports pricing; 2) a capital structure framework

that supports distributions; 3) we remain+ve on Project Sunrise. Our Jun -27 PT Key Changes (FYE Jun)

shifts to $11.50 (was $10.30) based on our DCF-based and relative P/E valuations. Prev Cur Δ

Adj.