Assa Abloy Early look at Q2’26: Little to differentiate into Q2 given unchanged market conditions; FX and M&A drive 1% upgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Assa Abloy Early look at Q2’26: Little to differentiate into Q2 given unchanged market conditions; FX and M&A drive 1% upgrade

en excluding the US tariff impact last year. We note that Q2 will (91-22) 6157-3233

ram.mehta@jpmchase.com

have slightly tougher comps, and a neutral working day impact (as in Q1). On J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

M&A, we expect a +2.4% contribution in the quarter. We expect FX headwinds

to ease sequentially, and forecast a -1.6% headwind y/y on sales (~20bps Specialist Sales contact details:

headwind on the margin). We model a Q2 margin of 16.4%, a sequential Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

increase of 110bp, which reflects typical seasonality, price/cost tailwinds, and European Industrials

operating leverage, partially offset by M&A dilution and FX. (44-20) 7742-8733

sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

• JPMe versus consensus. Our Q2 sales and adj. EBIT forecasts are 1% and 0% Key Changes (FYE Dec) versus consensus, respectively (Table 1). Our margin of 16.4% is in line with

Prev Cur Δ

consensus. For 2026/2027/2028, our adj. EBIT forecasts are 2%/5%/6% ahead Adj. EPS - 26E (Skr) 16.58 16.54 -0.2%

of the standing consensus, mainly as a result of the improved FX rates and the Adj. EPS - 27E (Skr) 18.71 19.24 2.8%

incorporation of recent M&A, both of which consensus has yet to reflect (Table

2). Style Exposure

• Divisional forecasts. In EMEIA we model 3.6% organic growth, with easier

comps supporting higher growth sequentially. The backdrop is broadly

unchanged: Nordics stronger, Germany supported by a digital access upgrade

cycle, France improving off a depressed base, while the UK remains difficult

and Southern Europe is slightly softer. In the Americas, we model 3.7%

organic growth on tougher comps, with no change in market dynamics but