Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.: WMS Provides Long-Term Growth Targets

Research evidence excerpt

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.: WMS Provides Long-Term Growth Targets

Equity Research

U.S. Homebuilding & Building Products

18 June 2026

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.

WMS Provides Long-Term Growth

Targets First Look

WMS issued long-term growth targets suggesting EBITDA WMS OVERWEIGHT

POSITIVEmargin at 30%+, which we view as more than achievable with U.S.BuildingHomebuildingProducts &

upside potential from pricing power along with +8% organic Price Target USD 181.00

growth and $5b for share buyback + M&A. Price (17-Jun-26) USD 139.16 Potential Upside/Downside +30.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

This morning, WMS issued a long-term 2030 value creation framework ahead of the Investor Day

today, which includes organic revenue growth >8%, adj. EBITDA margin >30%, and >70% adj U.S. Homebuilding & Building

EBITDA to OCF with $5b for M&A and share buyback. At first glance, we think these targets Products

appear largely conservative as the growth algo could be viewed as driving DD% growth, Matthew Bouley

and holding margins at 30% would be unlikely if growth is that strong. On top of that, as +1 212 526 9029

seen in the last investor day, WMS could have additional earnings upside driven by pricing matthew.bouley@barclays.com

power. BCI, US

Elizabeth Langan

With FY29 consensus at $1.1b, FY30's $1.2b should be well received as it is, but again our +1 212 526 5960

look at the targets suggest WMS is leaving room for upside. elizabeth.langan@barclays.com

BCI, US

We look for more detail at the Investor Day around the following: 1) Organic growth

Anika Dholakiadrivers; management provided a build of +LSD-MSD market growth, +LSD conversion, and

+1 212 526 8780

+MSD high growth products and we wonder whether these growth drivers span across both anika.dholakia@barclays.com