European Autos & Auto Parts: China risk assessment: Deep dive into EU Auto China exposure following BMW warning

Research evidence excerpt

European Autos & Auto Parts: China risk assessment: Deep dive into EU Auto China exposure following BMW warning

Equity Research

European Autos & Auto Parts

18 June 2026

China risk assessment: Deep dive

into EU Auto China exposure

European Autos & Auto Partsfollowing BMW warning

NEGATIVE

BMW's big China-related profit warning on 16 June has European Autos & Auto Parts

Henning Cosmanprompted a lot of questions regarding cross-reads to MBG,

VW and P911. There is no comprehensive disclosure on China +44henning.cosman@barclays.com(0)20 3134 3106

exposure. But BARCe estimates imply that MBG (55% EBIT Barclays, UK

exposure) is far more vulnerable than VW (21%) and P911 Erwann Dagorne

+33 (0)1 4458 3664

(12%). erwann.dagorne@barclays.com

BBI, Paris

Wei Jia

EU Autos China risk assessment: BARCe estimates +44wei.jia@barclays.com(0)20 3555 6740

imply that MBG (55% EBIT exposure) is far more Barclays, UK

vulnerable than VW (21%) and P911 (12%)

Our Negative sector view on EU Autos is predicated on several structural and cyclical headwinds

facing the industry, including China profit pool erosion, China OEM exports into international

markets, US tariffs, cost/raw material inflation, emission regulation, geopolitics, affordability,

and Mobility-as-a-Service disruption (also see our 2026 sector Outlook). At the same time,

exposure to secondary growth opportunities such as data centres, AI, humanoids, defence,

space or robotaxis have selectively led to share price fantasy across a number of Global Autos

stocks – but EU OEMs are (for the most part) not exhibiting the corresponding exposure to

attract such fantasy, in our view. And so the China concerns remain the dominant theme in EU

Autos at this point, not least after BMW's significant China-driven profit warning on 16 June.