US Economic Perspectives "US Inflation Monthly: Trimmed means, etc." Detmeister

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives "US Inflation Monthly: Trimmed means, etc." Detmeister

Global Research

17 June 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasUS Inflation Monthly: Trimmed means, etc.

Alan Detmeister

Economist

Will trimmed mean inflation change anything? Probably not alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

Inside we summarize our view on many themes dominating inflation discussions

(crude oil, supply shocks, AI adoption, seasonality, tariffs, world cup impacts, Jonathan Pingle

Economist housing rent slowdown, CPI sampling difficulties) and look a little deeper into

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

another one: trimmed mean inflation measures. +1-212-713 2225

As a general concept trimmed mean inflation measures have merit and should be Abigail Watt

among the indicators of inflation consulted, but the choices used in constructing Economist

the Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE inflation measure are leading it to be lower than abigail.watt@ubs.com

other inflation measures. While new Fed Chairman Warsh might bring up this +1-212-882 6929

trimmed mean measure more than past Fed Chairs, it will not become the FOMC's Amanda Wilcox

official inflation target nor, given its outlier status, is it likely to change many votes Economist

on the Committee. amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

May is the peak: June headline CPI projected at -0.21%, core +0.21% Jalen Nichols

With the CPI, PPI, and import prices in hand we project core PCE prices rose 0.36% Economist

in May with 12-month inflation rising to 3.45%. Meanwhile headline PCE prices jalen.nichols@ubs.com

are projected to have increased 0.49% with 12-month inflation jumping to +1-212-882 6905

4.11%. May PCE prices will be published next week on Thursday, June 25. Pierre Lafourcade