US Economic Perspectives "FOMC regime change" Pingle

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives "FOMC regime change" Pingle

Global Research

17 June 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasFOMC regime change

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

Significant overhaul and significant shift toward hiking jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

The FOMC left the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%,

as expected. There were no dissents at Chair Warsh's first meeting, as we expected. Only Alan Detmeister

Economist18 participants submitted dots, we do not know that Warsh's dot was absent, but

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

speculation among ourselves and others was building ahead of the meeting to whether +1-212-713 1222

the new Chair would submit a projection. It looks like he did not.

Abigail Watt

The updated summary of economic projections (SEP) now shows the median participant abigail.watt@ubs.com

expects one half a 25 bp hike in the federal funds rate in 2026. There was an even split of +1-212-882 6929

the 18, between 9 with no hikes and 9 who thought hikes would be appropriate this

Amanda Wilcox

year. There was one participant who thought a rate cut this year would still be Economist

appropriate. amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

The half a hike in the median is then followed by the funds rate at the end of 2027 Jalen Nichols

where it is now, which was our forecast, and then the median has a cut to 3.4% in 2028, Economist

which was what we thought would unfold. However we expected 6 or 7 participants to jalen.nichols@ubs.com

assume a rate hike more this year, 9 was more than we anticipated. However, it sounds +1-212-882 6905

like the FOMC is evenly split, other than the new Chair, over hiking or prolonged hold. A

majority still thinks rates should be lower in 2028 than they are now. The economic