Fletcher Building "Asset sales help partially mitigate slower recovery"

Research evidence excerpt

Fletcher Building "Asset sales help partially mitigate slower recovery"

Fletcher Building UBS Research

FBU Forecast changes

FBU released a trading update and expects FY26 EBIT of $375m to $380m (ex

discontinued items) and includes ~$40m of one off gains on property sales. Adjusting

for one-offs this forecast was in line with consensus of ~$335m (ex construction). We

have increased our FY26 EBIT forecast by 23% from NZ$305m to NZ$375m which is in

line with guidance. We have increased our FY27 EBIT forecasts by 2% from NZ$350m to

NZ$356m. We assume a gradual recovery in FY27 given Election uncertainty with a

more material recovery in FY28 (unchanged from our update in April link). Our FY27

EBIT forecast is ~10% below Visible Alpha consensus and we believe there is risk to

consensus given 1H27 is likely to be weak. Key changes reflect asset sales, reduction in

debt and :

1. Asset sales: We have assumed $446m of asset sales in FY26 (construction NZ

$315m and property sales of NZ$131m). In FY27 we assume $28m of asset sales

including second tranche of Elizabeth St property and sale of Steel Reinforcing

business.

2. Steel margins: We have adjusted up our steel EBIT margins to take account of

EBIT losses from the reinforcing business from FY27 (assume sale Dec 26).

NB: Reinforcing will be a discontinued item in FY26.

3. IFRS-18 adjustments: We have increased IFRS-18 adjustments in FY26 from

$13m to $56m which includes $40m one off gains on property sales.

4. Sig items: We have included ~$100m for gain on sale of Construction division in

FY26. In FY27 we have included loss on sale of Reinforcing business of $21.5m (in

line with guidance).

5. Debt & Gearing: We have lowered debt down to $760m (ex leases) in FY26 as a

result of asset sales and is in line with guidance.