Global Warehouse Automation "UBS Evidence Lab inside: bigger is better" Weier

Research evidence excerpt

Global Warehouse Automation "UBS Evidence Lab inside: bigger is better" Weier

Global Warehouse Automation UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP MOSTSector ThesisFAVOREDMap EXPOSURE TO THEME: LEAST FAVORED EXPOSURE TO THEME:

Cognex, Interroll, Kardex, Daifuku, KION, Symbotic, Ocado

Zebra

Pivotal Questions Q: What short- and medium-term growth is expected in warehouse automation capex?

Based on the latest UBS Evidence Lab survey, we expect 5.7% average annual growth in warehouse

automation capex over the next 12 months and 4.2%, on average, over the next three years. This

compares to 5.4% and 4.2%, respectively, in 2025, despite current macroeconomic uncertainties

and a significant equipment pre-buy effect triggered by the pandemic.

Q: Who are the likely relative winners?

Once more, KION comes out as the number one in the survey, followed by Swisslog and Toyota

Industries. We zoom in again on cube storage, whose competitiveness does not show as clearly as

promoted by the main players. In addition, the space is likely to attract more players, such as

AutoStore's current business partners, in the medium term.

Q: What are the main drivers for warehouse automation?

Technological progress is still the strongest motive to increase capex (unchanged at 74%), as well as

respondents aiming to robotise their warehouses (44% vs 46%) or even achieve a lights-out

warehouse (40% vs 38%). Insufficient handling capacity has increased to 37% from 31% (60%

peak) whereas labour cost inflation ranks highly at 57% vs 51% (labour shortage at 34%).

WHAT´S PRICED IN? KION discounts severe recession valuation implications (link). For Kardex, we expect that MSD growth

is priced in over the medium term, while for Interroll even only LSD growth. For Daifuku, we think