Italgas "2026-32 Strategic Plan preview: What we expect" (Buy) Kelly

Research evidence excerpt

Italgas "2026-32 Strategic Plan preview: What we expect" (Buy) Kelly

Global Research

17 June 2026ab

Italgas Equities

Italy2026-32 Strategic Plan preview: What we expect

Gas Utilities

12-month rating Buy

Presentation at 10am CET on 23 June

We reiterate our Buy rating and €11.8 PT ahead of Italgas’s 2026-32 Strategic Plan 12m price target €11.80

presentation on 23 June (10am CET, 9am UK). Our 2026-32E EPS CAGR of 8% is in line

with consensus expectations, a lower 5-year rolling growth rate vs 25-31E/24-30E as

Price (16 Jun 2026) €10.57

regulatory uncertainties remain. Despite its strong share price performance since the 2i

acquisition, we believe the investment case is still intact and remain constructive. We RIC: IG.MI BBG: IG IM

continue to view Italgas as one of the most attractive growth opportunities within

Trading data and key metrics

European regulated utilities, delivering sector-leading earnings and dividend growth

52-wk range €11.18-6.87

while trading at a discount to peers.

Market cap. €10.7b/US$12.4b

Focus on synergy delivery and growth drivers beyond the integration Shares o/s 1,016m (ORD)

Free float 60%

We expect the focus to be on the delivery of synergies and further upside to the previous

guide of €250m. However, we will not be surprised if questions will increasingly shift Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,759

towards growth optionality beyond the integration. Our EPS estimates are on average Avg. daily value (m) €28.1

1% above consensus for 2026-32E, which we think is due to the limited visibility on the Common s/h equity (12/26E) €4.24b

treatment of efficiency gains under the incoming TOTEX/ROSS framework. In our view, P/BV (12/26E) 2.5x

the extent to which incremental savings accrue to and are retained by network operators Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 5.2x