Shopify Inc "Shop Campaigns Overview & Analysis" (Neutral) Chiodo

Research evidence excerpt

Shopify Inc "Shop Campaigns Overview & Analysis" (Neutral) Chiodo

Campaigns pricing (based on merchant's target CAC), industry-level lead generation

advertising pricing, and various industry discussions. Our illustrative scenario suggests a

relatively modest contribution to 2028E gross profit estimates (~low-MSD% of current

UBSe total gross profit forecasts). That said, we see potential for a long-term opportunity

around Shop Campaigns (under which we assume meaningful scaling of the Campaigns

business via increased Shop app traffic and a shift to a more traditional commission-

based monetization model and/or greater retention of the merchant's CAC within the

current discounting to the consumer model) and include an illustrative 2035E blue sky

scenario that assumes Shop Campaigns becomes a much larger part of Shopify's core

merchant offering, arriving at ~high-teens% of current UBSe 2035E gross profit

forecasts within our illustrative DCF. The scope of this analysis is focused only on Shop

Campaigns within the Shop app and does not consider potential contributions from

additional advertising opportunities, including the Shopify Product Network, campaigns

on third-party sites, etc. While we do not explicitly include Shop Campaigns in our

model, the vast majority of our illustrative estimated contribution from Shop Campaigns

will be incremental to our forecasts.

Recent milestones: Shopify introduced Shop Campaigns in January 2024 as part of its

Winter ’24 Editions and expanded access across all Shopify plans in December 2024,

democratizing access to performance marketing tools for merchants of all sizes. In 2025,

Campaigns revenue doubled and merchant adoption tripled, while Q3 2025 saw a 4x

YoY increase in merchant adoption and 9x YoY growth in budget commitments for