SSAB (1K) | Hold | Q2 likely to meet expectations (preview)

Research evidence excerpt

SSAB (1K) | Hold | Q2 likely to meet expectations (preview)

should deliver the strongest margin improvement, supported by Consensus EPS 7.2 8.3 8.0

higher prices and stabilised scrap costs, while European margins are expected to Net dividend 2.64 3.17 3.12

improve more modestly. We forecast broadly flat margins in Special Steels, FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

reflecting higher coal costs. P/E adj and ful. dil. 14.3 11.9 12.1

We expect management to characterise Q3 as a transition quarter before the EV/EBITDA 7.1 7.1 7.6

EV/EBIT 10.6 9.9 10.8

benefits from the new TRQ framework gradually materialise. FCF yield -5.9% -12.9% -6.5%

Following the restart of the Oxelösund EAF project, we see limited impact from Dividend yield 2.8% 3.4% 3.3%

recent execution challenges and expect only a one-quarter delay to start-up. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA -0.3 0.8 1.4 Gearing -8.8% 11.0% 21.7%

Deconstructing the forecasts ROIC 10.3% 10.3% 8.5%

We have raised our EPS estimates by an average of 6% across 2026–2028, EV/IC 1.3 1.2 1.1

primarily reflecting higher margin assumptions for SSAB Americas, driven by Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

rising steel prices. ArcelorMittal SSAB

Salzgitter

Our EPS estimates are now 10% below consensus for 2026 and 3–4% below thyssenkrupp

consensus for 2027–2028. This gap mainly reflects our assumption of a more

gradual pass-through of steel price increases to earnings, given the lag effect from

contractual pricing mechanisms.

Valuation and investment conclusion

Applying updated peer multiples to our revised estimates, our SOTP model yields

a fair value of SEK101 per share, which becomes our new target price (from Boris Bourdet, CFA Equity Research Analyst

SEK89). +33 1 70 81 57 25