PLTR Relaunching Coverage - They Not Like Us!

Research evidence excerpt

PLTR Relaunching Coverage - They Not Like Us!

June 15, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Catalysts. Near-term catalysts could come from PLTR continuing to see strong large renewals on AIP deals

translating into positive estimate revisions and growth acceleration. Upside could come from US government growth

continuing to improve as large programs like Maven, TITAN, Vantage, Apollo, Warp Speed, and ShipOS ramp, while

a more focused US government modernization cycle under the new administration can support a larger number of

new projects. On the commercial side, larger US new logo lands and stronger expansion at renewals would reinforce

confidence in how PLTR’s AI FDE motion is further shortening time to value and increasing customer willingness to

expand after initial deployments. We also see potential upside if RoW commercial improves, as executive pressure

around AI adoption pushes more enterprises to organize fragmented data and workflows before scaling AI usage.

Potential negative catalysts include a smaller magnitude of positive estimate revisions if renewal expansion slows,

particularly if AI budgets face greater scrutiny and recent token usage / infrastructure cost fears cause customers to

become more careful around the ROI of AI adoption.

Key Risks. Key risks include 1) US commercial renewals step down as customers scrutinize AI budgets more closely,

reducing the expansion levels that have supported PLTR’s NRR improvement, 2) RoW government and commercial

segments become a larger drag to revenue growth if geopolitical scrutiny, sovereignty concerns, or slower AI adoption

outside the US persist, and 3) employee turnover creates a productivity gap in PLTR’s FDE motion, particularly if more