NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment: June HMI Declines 2 points to 35. Discounting/Incentives Tick Higher

Research evidence excerpt

NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment: June HMI Declines 2 points to 35. Discounting/Incentives Tick Higher

Homebuilders & Building Products

June 15, 2026

NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment: June HMI Declines 2 points Exhibit 1 - NAHB HMI

to 35. Discounting/Incentives Tick Higher Statistics

NAHB Builder

The Wolfe Byte Sentiment Index

The June HMI fell 2 points MoM to 35. The Consensus was 36. Unfortunately, June 2026 35

the decline was driven by a 2 point “Present“ sales contraction. We await future May 2026 37

readings for signs of improving consumer sentiment given positive Iran news. MoM Chg -2

Vs 50 -15

Source: Wolfe Research, Census

The June NAHB HMI (Builder Sentiment Index, measuring May) declined 2 points

Exhibit 2 - NAHB HMIto 35, 1 point below the 36 Consensus expectation. This was the 26th consecutive

Since 2021

month the HMI has been in negative territory (i.e. <50) and 14th consecutive month 90

below 40. Despite June being the 2nd lowest reading YTD, the HMI did increase 3 70

60points YoY. Obviously, the June HMI reflects builder sentiment prior the Iran peace 50

40agreement and Strait of Hormuz re-opening. We await future HMI readings as we 30

expect improved consumer sentiment over coming months should the Iran deal prove Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26

sustainable. That said, we do not expect any sort of overnight demand inflection as Source: Wolfe Research, NAHB

prospective homebuyers are likely to take a wait and see approach over the near-

to-intermediate term given prior false starts regarding conflict resolution and still-

elevated mortgage rates.

The “Present Sales“ metric fell 2 points to 38 from 40 in May, remaining below the Trevor Allinson, CFA