Iran disruption tracker #73: End game? 5 days to figure out if this is real: WTI Dec28 $68.5/bbl

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #73: End game? 5 days to figure out if this is real: WTI Dec28 $68.5/bbl

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ending its nuclear programme.

●POTUS is expected to meet with G7 on Monday in France where he will discuss removing mines from the Strait.

Separately, he is expected to meet with Egypt and Qatar during the event.

●The funeral ceremonies for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be in July during Murharram

between July 4th and the 9th.

●U.S. Central Command said it has redirected 142 compliant commercial vessels and disabled 9 non-compliant

ships since April 13 as part of its enforcement of the Iranian blockade.

●Prior to deal, U.S. military kept Gulf exports moving: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military helped

move roughly 7mm bpd of oil out of the Persian Gulf, equivalent to about half of the volumes still disrupted by the

Hormuz crisis. The estimate suggests exports are running at roughly one-third of normal Hormuz flows, helping

explain why Brent has not experienced a more severe price spike.

●Nigeria reaches OPEC+ ceiling: Nigeria's crude production rose to 1.53 million bpd in May, the highest level

since January 2025, according to the NUPRC. Africa's largest producer is now pumping at its OPEC+ quota after

years of underperformance due to sabotage, theft, and operational disruptions.

Things to watch:

●Watch to see if signing of Peace deal on Friday remains on track, and that there are no military actions that

could disrupt that.

●The potential peace terms, which are expected to be published after the signing

●The willingness of the Iran to discuss ending its nuclear program as that may be a governor whether peace

persists.

●The pace at which flows return to normal assuming the Strait remains open. From discussions with some of