US Banks: Lending pulse: From War to Warsh

Research evidence excerpt

US Banks: Lending pulse: From War to Warsh

Accessible version

US Banks

Lending pulse: From War to Warsh

Industry Overview

Fed H.8: stable growth with modest normalization 14 June 2026

Fed H.8 data (week ending 6/3/26) showed continued momentum even though we Equity

observe some deceleration (Exhibits 1-2). Loan growth over past few months has been United States

broad based, with deceleration in NDFI lending the notable exception; tracking +25.9% Banks

YoY vs. +32.7% at the end of 1Q26. Deposit trends are bucking typical seasonality, with Ebrahim H. Poonawala

balances up +0.17% QTD vs. a -1.1% historical average (Exhibits 3–15). Research Analyst

BofAS

Main Street banks reassert leadership, FOMC next catalyst +1ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.com646 743 0490

Bank stocks (large-caps and regionals) have outperformed broader benchmarks MTD Brandon Berman

(S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, XLF), driven by constructive management updates (= Research Analyst BofAS

resilient growth momentum) and hopes for a more durable ceasefire in Iran (= easing +1 646 855 3933

inflation risks). Together, this has helped dial back stagflation concerns. Main Street brandon.berman@bofa.com

banks (money centers and regionals) have led Wall Street peers (GS/MS, trust banks), GabrielResearchAngeliniAnalyst

early signs of a cyclical bid reminiscent of January. BofAS

+1 646 855 3081

Catalyst: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-FOMC press conference Wednesday could be gabriel.angelini@bofa.com

the next catalyst—particularly if the market pares back rate-hike expectations that have Michael Campos Research Analyst

flattened 2s/10s (= headwind for bank stock P/Es). Relevant research: US Banks: Expert BofAS

Insights: AI Financing Cycle, Credit Dispersion and the Path of Fed Policy +1michael.c.campos@bofa.com646 855 3912