Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 15 – 19 June

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 15 – 19 June

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Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 15 – 19 June

US: FOMC to remain on hold in Warsh’s first meeting 14 June 2026

We expect the FOMC to keep the policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in June and remove the easing Economics Rates & FX

bias from its statement. We don’t anticipate any dissents. The SEP should show higher Global

inflation, a lower u-rate and no cuts this year. A few policymakers will likely project

hikes. We don’t think Warsh will submit forecasts. Table of Contents

Japan: BoJ to hike 25bp, focus will be on communication Known Unknowns 2

We expect the BoJ to raise the policy rate by 25bp. With markets already pricing in Known Unknowns (EM) 5

around 1.9 hikes by end-2026, we think the bar for a hawkish surprise is high. Sunday 6

Monday 6

Tuesday 7UK: BoE to remain on hold given dovish data

We expect the BoE to keep rates at 3.75%. Dovish inflation/labor market data, lack of Wednesday 8

explicit guidance on June and MPC's patient approach is likely to mean a hold. Thursday 9

Friday 10

Switzerland: SNB on hold with ZIRP until end-2027 Research Analysts 14

We expect the SNB to remain on hold at 0%. Our base case remains that zero interest

rate policy (ZIRP) will stay in place until 2027 vs. market pricing of a hike next year.

Antonio Gabriel

Australia: RBA to hold after reaching a good position GlobalBofAS Economist

We expect the RBA to hold at 4.35% at its June meeting, following three consecutive +1antonio.gabriel@bofa.com646 743 5373

increases from 3.60% to 4.35%, which has taken policy into restrictive territory. Pedro Diaz

Caribbean Economist

Scandies: Norges & Riksbank to deliver a hawkish hold BofAS+1 646 855 2575

We still think the balance of arguments favours staying on hold at 4.25%.