Arctic: Shipping Daily - Tankers, El Niño, Dry bulk, TEU, LNG, PSHG

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Shipping Daily - Tankers, El Niño, Dry bulk, TEU, LNG, PSHG

and pushing freight rates up. If El Niño peaks toward year-end as forecast, that crunch arrives

exactly when Asian heating demand is at its highest, the scenario charterers are most exposed

to and owners of well-positioned tonnage tend to benefit from most.

Dry bulk: Coal prices continue to edge higher

In a seek to replace LNG, Asian coal prices are extending its gain and seeing prices reach the

highest seen since Dec '23 as Newcastle coal futures reached USD 151.75/mt yesterday. The risk

of curbed output from Indonesia are rumored to improve versus the initial plan, as the expected

plan to cut output from 820 million tonnes to 600 is becoming a lower risk when prices stay high,

but there lies uncertainty on how much exports are set to fall over the coming period. Should the

production target drop from 790 million to 600, it translates into 190 million tonnes in lost export

and compares to 511 million tonnes of export from Indonesia last year. Global exports were 1,328

million tonnes in 2025, implying that a potential drop of 220 million tonnes would represent a volume

reduction of ~17% on a global basis.

TEU: Indices strengthen

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased by 3.4% yesterday to USD 3,549/FEU.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was reported at 2,985 this morning,

marking a 9.5% w-o-w increase. Container freight rates have risen sharply in recent weeks, with

the WCI up 55% m-o-m. We do expect that the sentiment have been boosted by front-loading

of volumes ahead of the scheduled hearing for whether the US administration can rebuild a tariff

coverage using traditional trade authorities. If successful, the administration could enforce more