GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Momentum Improving, Although Q2 Guide Disappoints. Reit Neutral.
Research evidence excerpt
Momentum Improving, Although Q2 Guide Disappoints. Reit Neutral.
Investment Thesis
Torrid is the dominant player in the large and growing plus-size apparel market, with further share consolidation opportunity
as competitors retreat. While growth has sputtered in recent years (four consecutive years of negative growth) and margins sit
below historical levels, efforts to reset and enhance the business are showing signs of bearing fruit, including success in reducing
promotional reliance, an improved supply chain, and assortment enhancements (including a burgeoning sub-brand strategy)CONSUMER resonating with a broader audience. While '25 was a transition year and management is now able to shift back into a growth focus
in '26, macro and execution risk remain as consumers remain cautious and improvements in the business are in the early stages.
With shares trading ~in-line with historical levels but slightly above peers, we look for more clarity around timing of a revenue and
margin inflection to become positive. We reiterate our Neutral rating.RETAIL
AND Upcoming■ Relaunch Catalystsof Casting Call platform (July) Price$7 Performance
■ Q2 earnings (est. early September) $6
■ Improved inventory balance toward $5
■ Continued rollout of sub-brands $4
■ Expansion of opening price point
$3 ■ Re-accelerated growth in intimates brand Curve
$2LIFESTYLE ■ Continued fleet rationalization
■ Benefits from marketing efforts toward retention and reactivation $1
$0
Base Case Assumptions Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26
CURVBRANDS ■ Revenue declines 5.3% YoY in 2026 (towards the mid-point of guidance ~(6%)- S&P 500 (rebased)
(4%)), with Adjusted EBITDA margins increasing ~70 bps YoY to 7.1% (within Source: FactSet
guidance).
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