MU Preview: Follow the GW Content; PT to $1,500

Research evidence excerpt

MU Preview: Follow the GW Content; PT to $1,500

TD Cowen Micron Technology

Global Research June 14, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

Micron arguably has one of the best technology portfolios in years, and being vertically ■ LTA granularity

integrated across DRAM, NAND and HBM remains vital within system architectures as ■ Hyperscale CapEx

megatrends like AI, automotive ADAS, and IoT become more prominent. The company is

now reaping the benefits from industry-broad supply cuts in 2022 and 2023, which are

helping pricing for DRAM and NAND. However, even as utilization rates increase, we see High

Bandwidth Memory as game changing for supply given the CapEx intensity associated with it

where it costs 3x to make 1 exabyte of HBM compared to regular DRAM. This also helps NAND,

which carries lower profitability than DRAM, as suppliers reduce their NAND wafer starts growth

and focus on node upgrades, which helps pricing. We see $8.5B in HBM revs for MU in CY26 (up

from $6.5B in CY25) with overall TAM of $45B in C26 growing at 30-50% CAGR over next few

years.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ 88% GMs in CY27 ■ Pricing upside throughout CY27 ■ Hyperscalers pushing back on pricing in

■ $150 EPS CY27 ■ LTAs with minimum GM of +80% CQ1:27

■ Pricing declining sequentially starting

CQ3:27

Price Performance Company Description

Micron Technology, founded in 1978 and headquartered in Boise, Idaho, is one of the world's

1,200

leading manufacturers of memory technologies specializing in DRAM, NAND flash and NOR

flash memory products. It also provides packaging solutions and semiconductor systems.

1,000

Micron has grown both organically and through acquisition, with the acquisition of Elpida in

800 2013 bolstering its position in DRAM.