Canada Mining Weekly: Revisiting the Gold Thesis

Research evidence excerpt

Canada Mining Weekly: Revisiting the Gold Thesis

Canada | Metals & Mining EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

P/NAV at spot commodity pricesCanada Mining Weekly: Revisiting the Gold

Current Current AverageThesis 2.4x

Gold sold off heavily this week, to ~$4,200/oz, on renewed expectations of 2.2x

higher rates. The May CPI of 4.2% didn't help. For context, US inflation in May 2.0x1.8x

was the highest in 3 yrs. While some investors may have a hard time imagining 1.6x

1.4xa near-term bull case for gold, one does exist, and it goes like this: Inflation multiple

1.2xremains high, but the Fed keeps rates unchanged due to political motivations P/NAV

and fiscal implications, resulting in lower real rates and higher gold. 1.0x

0.8x

Commodity commentary. Gold has moved in one direction over the past month: down. The 0.6x

commodity has declined from ~$4,700/oz to ~$4,200/oz (-11%) during that time. Gold prices 0.4x

B BTG FNV WPM RGLD TFPM OR ERO HBM CS IVN NGEXpeaked in Jan at ~$5,400/oz. There are 2 factors that are pulling gold down: 1) Rate expectations 0.2x LUG AEM KGC PAAS OGC NEM AGI DPM EDV GMIN

and 2) Liquidity. On rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in a ~40% probability of a Fed

rate hike at the Oct meeting. This is a marked change from the start of the year when markets . Gold miners Streamers Copper miners

were pricing in rate cuts. On liquidity, as we saw at the onset of the US-Iran war, gold is again being Source: Company reports, FactSet, Jefferies

used as a source of liquidity, by institutional investors amid elevated equity volatility and possibly NAV Sensitivity To 10% Increase In

by some central banks (GCC countries?). Both of these factors could reverse if there is a formal Commodity Prices

resolution to the US-Iran war.