Kiawah Commentary – Dr Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects on the Oil & Gas Macro

Research evidence excerpt

Kiawah Commentary – Dr Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects on the Oil & Gas Macro

USA | Energy EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

Kiawah Commentary – Dr Amrita Sen of Energy

Aspects on the Oil & Gas Macro

At our Kiawah Conference, we hosted Dr. Amrita Sen, Founder of Energy

Aspects. Dr. Sen highlighted that oil markets are structurally tight despite

muted prices, driven by Iran-related disruptions, low inventories, weak liquidity,

and limited near term non-OPEC+ supply. Post-conflict, restocking and energy

security-driven infrastructure investment should lift demand. Tight refining

reinforces a higher medium-term price floor. Slide deck available upon request.

(1) Iran War & Geopolitical. Dr Sen highlighted the highly fluid and uncertain geopolitical

environment from the Iran conflict as hostilities in the Gulf continue to disrupt trade flows and

market sentiment. While the US is no longer actively seeking escalation, the Trump administration

remains prepared to respond. US pain points center on the 10Y treasury yield, equity market

performance, and retail gasoline prices. Iran has proven its resiliency despite exports dropping

from ~1.8mmbpd to approximately ~400mbpd as the Iranian regime have proven their “higher

threshold for pain” relative to the US. Ship traffic has begun to pick up, but primarily from ships

turning off their AIS and with US Naval support but is far below pre-war levels. Approximately

~3mmbpd is transiting the Gulf, excluding flows from the East-West Pipeline (~4mmbpd) and

flows via Fujairah (~1.5mmbpd). Total exports at approximately ~9mmbpd remain well below

~15mmbpd pre conflict. Longer-term the war is likely to drive an investment cycle in infrastructure

with Gulf players accelerating pipeline & export routes that bypass key chokepoints (Saudi scaling