Expert Call Takeaways: State of the Industry with Black Box Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

Expert Call Takeaways: State of the Industry with Black Box Intelligence

USA | Restaurants EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

Expert Call Takeaways: State of the Industry with

Black Box Intelligence

We hosted a webinar featuring guest speaker Victor Fernandez, Chief Insights

Officer at Black Box Intelligence, to discuss the latest trends across the

restaurant industry, including recent SSS, category trends, among other relevant

topics such as GLP-1s. Despite some uncertainty in the current environment

which has driven some near-term volatility, dining out demand appears to be

holding up well, with consumers continuing to budget for restaurant occasions.

Weather, tax refunds, and a war adding noise to recent trends. Although these factors have been

largely understood, category trends have shown a greater divergence in SSS, with Casual Dining

outperforming YTD (SSS +2.7%, traffic -0.8%), while Family Dining has lagged (SSS -0.8%, traffic

-5.0%) and Fast Casual trends have been similarly muted (SSS +0.4%, traffic -2.1%). Not surprisingly,

the majority of brands across all segments continue to record negative traffic results (only 30% of

brands achieved positive traffic YTD), driven by Family and Casual Dining, while a greater portion

of brands in Fast Casual and Upscale Casual recorded positive traffic (38% and 32%, respectively).

Increases in gas prices as the war/conflict in Iran goes on have also weighed on traffic, with ~$3.50/

gal the pressure point typically yielding negative inflections and more recently driving an outsize

impact on Casual and Family Dining traffic, while FC and QSR trends have remained steady.

Price points matter, but value perception becoming more nuanced and benefiting the likes

of Full Service.