Stabilizing Shares Could Put Tariff Hikes Back in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Stabilizing Shares Could Put Tariff Hikes Back in Focus

sector revenues, while VIL reported a marginal revenue increase for the Expect sector revenues to grow at 13% CAGR

fourth consecutive year. Bharti Airtel’s revenues grew 12% YoY, driven by 10% ARPU growth, over FY26-28E

mainly due to subscriber premiumization. The company gained 60bps in revenue market share Trend in sector revenues

in FY26, led by strong gains in Metros (+2.5ppts) and B-/C-Circles (+70bps/+90bps), supported 4540 (US$bn) 35 41

29by rural network expansion. 3530 32

25 21 24 26

19 19 18 20...VIL’s losses continued: Vodafone Idea’s revenues grew 5% YoY in FY26, driven by 12% 15 14 16

YoY ARPU growth, partly offset by a 7% decline in average active subscribers. While the pace 10

of subscriber losses moderated, continued losses weighed on its revenue market share. VIL 50

lost 75bps in revenue market share in FY26. Although market share erosion was broad-based . FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E

across circles, losses were led by Metros (-110bps) and B-Circles (-90bps). Source: TRAI, Jefferies

Bharti Airtel gaining across markets: Bharti Airtel delivered double-digit revenue growth in 14

of 22 circles during FY26. Its market share gains were broad-based, with gains in 19 of 22

markets. Notably, c.70% of gains came from four markets, and in three of these, Bharti Airtel

consolidated its leadership position. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea lost market share in 21 of 22

markets, with Karnataka the only exception; c.50% of its losses came from five markets.

Stabilizing market shares to shift focus toward market expansion: While VIL’s market share

losses continued in FY26, the pace moderated. Consequently, the pace of peer market share

gains has also slowed.