2026 Apr OA Paper Statistics: Japan -6%, US -10% YoY

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Apr OA Paper Statistics: Japan -6%, US -10% YoY

Precision Equipment

Equity Research

June 12, 2026

Chart 3 - MFP Companies' Non-Hardware Sales Trends YoY ex-Forex

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Canon MFP Ricoh MFP Fuji film MFP KM Office Canon MJ Average (5 companies)

.

Source: Jefferies. company data

Hardware business

IDC reported a 7% YoY decline in A3 MFP shipment volume (74% vs. 2019) in Jan-Mar 2026.

Hardware shipments weakened in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact, and customers postponed

replacement demand (renewals at completion of leasing contracts). While replacement demand

should have recovered in 2021, part shortages caused a decline in sales volume. Sales volume

linked to replacement demand, which had previously been postponed, rose in the latter half of 2022.

The positive trend (YoY) continued in Jan-Jun 2023, but this switched to a downturn in Jul-Sep,

and this YoY weakness continued in 2024. The negative trend continued in 2025 with a 5% YoY

decline (73% vs 2019), including macroeconomic recession concerns and tariff impact. In 2026,

we believe there is a possibility that the year-on-year renewal demand will remain flat or slightly

negative due to the demand for renewals, which has lagged the previous year's, but on the other

hand, there are concerns about the impact of the fonclit in the Middle East, high global costs, and

the impact of inflation.

In the medium term, we expect the negative trend to continue in the low- to mid-single-digit range.

The Trump administration tariffs were set at 15% for Japan and within a range of 19-25% for

Southeast Asian countries. While Japanese printing companies mainly had production sites in

China in the past, they have steadily deployed sites in Southeast Asia from the start of the first