Data Center Supply Chain: The Next Driver of Warehouse Demand

Research evidence excerpt

Data Center Supply Chain: The Next Driver of Warehouse Demand

industrial real estate than prior 0 MW 20.7

cycles. .Source: Jefferies,LXP Aterio,PLD CoStar,FR EGPCompanySTAGMaterialsTRNO REXR

Demand Impact Is Large, Growing, and Underappreciated: Our analysis suggests data center

growth could drive ~72-111M SF of annual incremental warehouse absorption through 2030,

equating to roughly 40-50% of total U.S. industrial net absorption over the period. This is supported

by rapid data center capacity expansion (~19% CAGR) and a growing conversion of MW into

incremental industrial space (we estimate ~7,000+ SF per MW).

A Goldilocks Backdrop for Industrials: Beyond data centers, the combined impact of e-commerce

and manufacturing points to a uniquely favorable period for industrial, with three structural demand

drivers operating simultaneously. The result is a “Goldilocks” backdrop — strong, diversified demand

that is not reliant on any single end market. In aggregate, our model suggests ~215–267M sq. ft.

of annual demand through 2030, exceeding CoStar estimates (avg. ~210M sq. ft.). At these levels,

we believe current expectations understate both the magnitude and durability of demand, setting

up a stronger and more sustained leasing cycle than currently embedded in forecasts.

Data Center Geography Is Shifting — Favoring Secondary and Power-Rich Markets: The data

center buildout is disproportionately concentrated in power-available interior and Sunbelt markets —

including Columbus, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta — rather than traditional coastal logistics

hubs. This represents a continuation of the geographic shift seen in manufacturing onshoring,

where demand is migrating toward lower-cost, infrastructure-ready markets. As a result, industrial