Tune In: TV Replacement Cycle Next Up

Research evidence excerpt

Tune In: TV Replacement Cycle Next Up

USA | Hardlines

Best Buy EquityJuneResearch11, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGETune In: TV Replacement Cycle Next Up

Of U.S. TVs sold from 2020-2021, we estimate ~13M were driven by a pull- RATING BUY

forward in replacement funded by stimulus checks during the pandemic. With PRICE $75.64^

an average useful life of ~6.5 years, we estimate a >150 bp comp sales tailwind PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $89.00 | +18%

in both C'27E & C'28E as the cycle plays out. We lift our comp sales ~50 52W HIGH-LOW $84.99 - $55.10

bps above the Street after this year; our comp assumes BBY clinches just FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 93.0% | 346.11

marginally-positive comps outside of the TV. Reiterate Buy. MARKET CAP $16.0B

TICKER BBY

Government stimulus checks, less socialization, and no travel during the pandemic spurred ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

discretionary consumer durable spend, including TVs. We estimate ~13M units purchased during

'20 & '21 were 'excess', and while not all may be eventually replaced, the upgrade tailwind from an

elevated installed base is clear. FY (Feb) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2027 2028 2027 2028

Approaching the 'sweet spot' for replacement. With an average useful life of ~6.5 years, we believe

REV NA NM NM +1%

the first (small) replacement wave hit recently, but most innings remain in '27 & '28.

EPS NA NM NM +6%

Best Buy's comp sales tailwind is measurable. We assume anemic housing turnover has potential

to push some COVID-era replacements into 2029E, though nonetheless, still see ~150-180 bps in 2027 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

BBY comp lift in both C'27E & C'28E. EPS 1.28 1.35 1.39 2.54 6.55

PREV

Best Buy is well-positioned to capture replacement demand. Historically, Best Buy has garnered

~1/3 of the TV unit sales.