GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Gas Tailwinds Far from Exhausted - Reiterate Buy on FTM Leader GEV
Research evidence excerpt
Gas Tailwinds Far from Exhausted - Reiterate Buy on FTM Leader GEV
encroachment on FTM demand continues to swirl, but it is critical at this stage to point out *Rev. (MM)
that there is no discernible evidence of a deceleration in demand or pricing activity for traditional FTM
solutions. Several industry stakeholders reject the idea that gas turbine quoting or order intake could
be challenged in the near term; many see positive pricing continuing for 3-4 years or more. Fears We appreciate that BTM considerations
of structural prime power oversupply displacing gas turbine deployments are high despite no clear are effectively displacing near-term grid
evidence of demand destruction; overbuild becomes a more valid concern for mid-2030s deployments, connection - however, this isn't a 'lost
but at this point we do not see manifestation in any singular real catalyst. opportunity' for FTM solutions. The end
market remains tight, and long-term
Previewing the 2Q26 report: Healthy 2Q orders. With 1Q26, GEV noted it expects to book 10-15 compounding demand continues to tick
GW of contracts (+10-20pts higher pricing than 4Q); we model ~$14.2bn in power orders, +15% vs. higher. We appreciate that 'peak orders' in
consensus. Concern for 2029/2030 slots not filling on EPC/project timelines should be effectively 2026 is indeed a real thought, given how
squelched with the 2Q26 report. We think GEV stands strong in the face of execution risks with blue successful they appear this year, but this is
chip customers on mission-critical projects with high-quality EPCs. more about a 'bumper crop' year in '26 than
any negative given their ability to book 2+
Very Much a Two-Pronged Data Center Play. Anticipate continued momentum on Electrification's
years in one.
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