Hurricane Preview: Clear Skies, Full Hearts, Can't Lose... Except on More Rate

Research evidence excerpt

Hurricane Preview: Clear Skies, Full Hearts, Can't Lose... Except on More Rate

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech EquityJuneResearch11, 2026

Exhibit 1 - North America: insured catastropheHurricane Preview: Clear Skies, Full Hearts, Can't

losses and P-CAT rate-on-line

Reinsurance rates have decreased in recentLose... Except on More Rate

years

200 300Early forecasts point to a below-avg hurricane season (vs. active '25/'24 ($bn)

150 250forecasts) amidst a shift to El Niño conditions that reduce storm activity and losses

Rate-on-lineresult in lower landfall odds. We believe a major loss (~$100bn+) is needed catastrophe 100 200

to materially shift reinsurance pricing. Light losses relatively favor primary Insured 50 150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026insurers over reinsurers for share performance and sets up potential for 0 100 US avg. (10yr avg) US insured catastrophe losses

stronger BB activity, but w/ incremental rate reductions at Jan '27 renewals. .Source: SwissUS avg. (totalRe,avg)Jefferies U.S. property rate-on-line

Exhibit 2 - Traditional and alternative

reinsurance global capital are at all-time highs

785Conditions are pointing to below normal activity for the North Atlantic storm season - Sea surface 800 20% 670

675 18% 650 700 625 605 595temperatures in the western Atlantic are near average, but cooler than normal in eastern/central 16% 585 575 575 565 600 540

14% 505

471 456 500 12%tropical Atlantic where storms typically form (higher SST is conducive to storm formation). Weak 410 649 400 385 600 400 10% 340 562 $bn 579 556 530 516 488 514 482 8% 511 493La Niña conditions currently exist, though this is expected to transition to El Niño (moderate/strong 300 490 461