COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK/600026 CH) H/A: Upgrade to Hold: Recalibrating earnings expectations

Research evidence excerpt

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK/600026 CH) H/A: Upgrade to Hold: Recalibrating earnings expectations

e to tightening of US sanctions on the shadow fleet has also

reinforced trade in legitimate markets, thereby supporting rates. They view potential FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (CNY)

Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

reopening of the Middle East trade as a clear positive to the tanker fundamentals, as it will HSBC EPS 0.80 2.25 1.29 1.03

increase total cargo availability, while restocking demand could be a long tailwind to rates. HSBC EPS (prev) 0.80 2.25 1.29 1.03

Change (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

However, any slowdown in the release of strategic reserves, vessel speeding up, release Consensus EPS 0.92 1.86 1.49 1.25

of floating storage, increase in new vessels deliveries, and permanent damage to oil Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

export facilities in the Middle East could present downside risks to current freight rates,

which remain above breakeven levels of USD33,000/day. Parash Jain* Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Why a Hold? In the short-term, mainly due to the the uncertainty in the Middle East. parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

In the long-term, we remain cautious on the fundamentals of the tanker market, especially +852 2996 6717

with the industry embracing new supplies, and strong recent tanker contracting translates Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

into long-term oversupply risks. While the aging fleet may reduce supply efficiencies The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

through slow steaming and more maintenance days, we do not expect scrapping to deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2822 4292

meaningfully pick up before the industry runs into a trough.

Bruce Chu*, CFA