COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK/601919 CH) H/A: Upgrade to Buy: Near-term earnings resilience

Research evidence excerpt

COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK/601919 CH) H/A: Upgrade to Buy: Near-term earnings resilience

ect margins. COSCO prioritized vessel turnover and schedule efficiency FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (CNY)

Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

over blindly adding voyages, supporting a firmer rate floor vs prior cycles. HSBC EPS 1.97 1.34 0.98 0.86

HSBC EPS (prev) 1.97 1.15 0.98 0.86

Shift in bargaining power and cost efficiency gains: Direct BCO exposure (now one- Change (%) 0.0 16.7 0.1 0.0

third of volume, with 50-60% under long-term contract) strengthens COSCO’s pricing Consensus EPS 1.97 1.41 0.94 1.13

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

power, especially as high-end Chinese manufacturers (Midea, Hisense, Haier) surpass

traditional Western retailers in negotiating leverage. Management also points to post- Parash Jain*

merger synergies (leveraging OOIL’s IT systems) as key drivers of structurally better cost Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

efficiency and profitability through the cycle. parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6717

Change in estimates: We raise 2026e profit by 17% on higher freight rates, partly offset

Deepak Maurya*, CFA

by higher fuel costs and higher minority interest. Our 2027-28e EPS forecasts are Analyst, Asia Transport

unchanged. For 1H26, we forecast RMB13bn net profit, implying RMB7.5bn in 2Q26. We The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

are 14% below Bloomberg consensus on reported profit for 2026e and 18-20% below for +852 2822 4292

2027-28e. Bruce Chu*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

Upgrade to Buy (from Hold) on H/A-shares with higher TPs of HKD17.20/RMB18.50 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

bruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk