Pit Stop: Key Debates in Global Autos

Research evidence excerpt

Pit Stop: Key Debates in Global Autos

osed NA and US content requirements realistic?

The Reuters reporting on 82% NA content and 50% US content requirements could be directionally

accurate, though US content for autos is more likely to land around 30-35%. The 50% figure could target

other Section 232 sectors where higher domestic content is more achievable. For autos, 50% looks

ambitious given 5-7 year model cycles. At 30-35%, feasibility is highly model- and company-specific. D3

Mexico-built models are likely in the 30-35% range today, while Honda ranks near the top on existing

US content.

Will supplier tariff exemptions remain intact?

Our channel checks expect supplier exemptions to hold as long as the issue stays out of the president's

direct line of sight. Removing the exemption would risk severe disruption. When the tariffs were initially

introduced, plants were within two to three weeks of shutting down before the exemption was granted.

The consensus is that the downside risk of removing the exemption far outweighs any political benefit.

The more subtle risk is a gradual narrowing of what qualifies under the US production offset credit

through 2030, where historically permissive treatment of transportation, rail, and R&D costs could be

tightened on a timeline that is not actionable for most companies.

How secure are the Japan, Korea, and Europe trade deals?

Japan and Korea are viewed as stable for now, with Japan seen as moving constructively on investment

commitments, though both deals are executive agreements that can be reversed at any time. Europe

seems more precarious — the breakdown was driven by insufficient EU support on Iran and personal

friction with Chancellor Merz. The path back to 15% hinges on the EU passing legislation by a July 4th